Oracle’s $463B Market Value Collapse Exposes AI Investment Risks
Oracle's market capitalization has plummeted nearly 50% from its $933 billion peak in September 2025, ejecting the tech giant from America's top 10 most valuable companies. The collapse underscores growing market skepticism about artificial intelligence investments.
The downward spiral began immediately after Oracle's bullish September 2025 cloud revenue projections, which rode the AI HYPE cycle. Now, the same AI-driven strategy appears to be backfiring spectacularly as investors question the profitability timeline for massive infrastructure expenditures.
December's announcement of accelerated AI data center spending triggered another selloff, compounded by deteriorating credit conditions. Oracle's credit risk index hit 2009 crisis levels as the company continued raising billions through debt offerings - some explicitly tied to unproven AI initiatives.
At the heart of the crisis lies Oracle's risky bet on OpenAI. With the AI startup still unprofitable, shareholders are realizing how much of Oracle's valuation relied on speculative assumptions about OpenAI's future spending power and technological breakthroughs.